Caleb Williams and the Bears beat the Seahawks on Monday Night

Why the Bears beat the Seahawks on Monday Night Football

The Chicago Bears walk into Lumen Field on Monday night and beat the Seattle Seahawks. Not cover. Win.

Chicago is 5-2. The Bears are 4-1 in their last 5 games, they have won two straight, and they outscore people by 5.3 points a game. Seattle is 4-3 and 2-3 over its last 5. The books still have the Seahawks as a 3-point favorite at home, with Chicago at +140 on the DraftKings moneyline. That is a lot of respect for a team that has been treading water for a month.

Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET in Seattle. The Bears have had extra time to get ready after beating New England 30-24 on Thursday night, Oct. 22.

Is Caleb Williams playing the best football of his career?

Caleb Williams has played four games this season. In those four, he has completed 71.0% of his passes for 1,020 yards, 5 touchdowns and 1 interception. He has also run for 128 yards and 2 scores.

The last two weeks are the real story. Since coming back from the hamstring injury that cost him three games, he went 30-of-36 for 305 yards in a 31-23 win at Atlanta, then 22-of-33 for 308 yards and 2 touchdowns against New England. Back-to-back 300-yard games, one interception all season.

Chicago is 3-1 in the games Williams has played. The Bears also went 2-1 in the three he missed, which tells you this roster can hold up. With Williams playing like this, it is a different team.

Can the Bears trust the number against the spread?

The Bears are 5-2 against the spread, the best mark in the NFL. They have scored 59, 31 and 30 in three of Williams' four games. The defense has forced 10 turnovers and goes after the quarterback, and Seattle's Sam Darnold has 8 interceptions this season.

Seattle's offense is the soft spot. The Seahawks rank 24th in EPA per play and average 3.9 yards per carry, and left tackle Charles Cross is listed as doubtful. If Seattle cannot run it, Darnold has to throw into a pass rush that has already taken the ball away 10 times. That is how a road underdog wins in prime time.

Seattle is 2-3-2 against the spread and has covered once in four home games. That team is now laying a field goal against the best cover team in the league. We will take the points every time, and we think Chicago does not need them.

The case for Seattle

Here is the fair side. Seattle is 3-1 at home this season, and its average scoring margin of plus 6.1 is actually better than Chicago's. The Seahawks defense ranks 1st in the league in opponent yards per play and 2nd in EPA per play. They also just beat Kansas City 20-3. That defense is why the books like them, and it is the real test for Williams.

Bears or Seahawks: who wins Monday night?

We got Chicago. The Bears are the hotter team, they have the hotter quarterback, and they have been the most reliable bet in football all year. Seattle has the better defense on paper, but a 2-3 team over its last 5 does not get to be a sure thing at home just because the game is in prime time.

Caleb Williams leaves Lumen Field 6-2. Who you got?